CHAPTER 4540 Day ShiftsYou and your partner are currently located in Station 3, or the Swan, and will be for the next 540 days. Station 3 was originally constructed as a laboratory where scientists could work to understand the unique electromagnetic fluctuations emanating from this sector of the island. When the alarm sounds, either you or your partner must input the code. Congratulations, until your replacements arrive, the future of the project is in your hands.The first thing that hit me was "why 540 days?" 540 days is equal to approximately 1.47 years. This seems like an odd length of time for PhD-level scientists to choose - why not 365 days or 730 days, instead? To me, this says that the scientists had no choice in selecting the shift length - it was either 540 days, 1,080 days, 1,620 days and so on as I believe that the island is on a "natural" 540-day cycle of some sort. By this I mean that the island is only accessible to the outside world every 540 days; unfortunately, I have no idea why this would occur (although this board seems to be on to something:http://forums.go.com/abc/primetime/lost/thread?threadID=663298#7743885).So who were our number pushers that were on the island and when were they there. We know that the incident occurred and the protocol started between 1970 and 1980. We also know that when Desmond arrived in 2001, Kelvin (a true number pusher, as far as we know) had been waiting for his replacement to arrive (based on Desmond's statements, Kelvin died waiting for his replacement). So at some point in time, the replacements stopped arriving, meaning that, imo, Dharma had some reason to no longer send them to the island after they sent Kelvin.Before I go further, I think it is necessary to post what A dear friend of ours has said on this subject:You know what the length of a hatch "stay" was supposed to be, and you know that something went wrong at some point since 1980 and before 3 years ago when Desmond found himself on the island: What do you know, specifically from things said by someone who has been on the island during that time, what happened during that period?So, what happened between 1980 and 2001 that we know about? IMO, it has to be Danielle. We know that she arrived in 1988. We also know that she changed the numbers transmission from the radio antenna to her distress call. What does all of this have to do with the replacements no longer being sent? Starting with the "fact" that no one has left the island and that the island is only accessible every 540 days, could it be that the only way for the outside world (aka, Dharma and Hanso) to know everything is ok on the island is through the broadcast of the numbers? If so, then by changing the numbers transmission, Dharma was no longer receiving the "all's clear" sign from the island (i.e.; the numbers being broadcast indicated that the protocol was still in effect). Without the numbers broadcast, Dharma believed that the protocol was no longer being followed which could mean that something catastrophic had happened on the island and thus they stopped sending replacements.Why do they need an "all's clear" signal? If no one has ever left, does that mean that no one can leave? I think so. So, if no one has ever left, how else would Dharma know what is going on on the island except for a radio transmission. And if you don't want the rest of the world to know what you are doing, you transmit in code (not that the numbers are necessarily a code for something, but that no one else knows what the hell they mean). Thus, by changing the transmission, Danielle prevented any further replacements from coming to the island. Which, imo, means that Kelvin arrived on the island in 1988, the same day as Danielle and her team, possibly even as part of her team.Before I get to my questions regarding this part of my theory, I have one more shift-related item to share - Desmond's arrival date in 2001 could be two "shifts" prior to flight 815 crashing on the island (this all depends on Des' exact arrival date - it would have to be October 8, 2001).Oh yeah - I also believe that the numbers broadcast can only be heard by the outside world every 540 days (part of the whole accessible thing). IMO, this is explained by Sam and Lenny "suddenly" hearing the numbers being broadcast - they just happened to be listening on the 540th day.Now for my questions. How did Kelvin arrive? Did he know exactly why he was coming to the island? Who was his partner? Did they come together? Who did he/they replace? What happened to the team he/they replaced? Could Kelvin have been the first, and only, number pusher on the island? What happens at the end of 540 days? No where in the video does it say how they are replaced. We just assume that replacements arrive every 540 days. If Dharma relies on crashes, that's one crash every 540 days - you think someone might notice a plane/boat going missing in the same area every 540 days for 8 to 18 years.Added on 11/28/05:The 540 day shift length could also explain how Kelvin found Desmond so relatively easily. Many have speculated that it seemed odd that Kelvin just happened to be waiting for Desmond when Kelvin needed to input the numbers every 108 minutes (remember, it was only Kelvin in the hatch at this point in time). However, if a 540 day cycle does exist, and Kelvin was aware of it (and according to the video, he was), then Kelvin was anticipating someone's arrival the day that Desmond's boat crashed. This is why Kelvin was out of the hatch - he was looking for his replacement or just looking for anyone. Kelvin could have been leaving his hatch after each time he pushed the button on that day trying to locate any person arriving on the island. This would also explain how the others knew to expect flight 815 and "dress" accordingly.Added on 11/29/05I have been thinking aboutthe fact that no one has ever left the island. Above I suggest that no onecanleave the island - I could be wrong (duh) about this. What if you can leave the island, but you can only leave every 540th day (the same as arriving on the island). Additionally, what if no one on the island is aware of this. What if over the past 25 years, people have tried to leave but have been unsuccessful because they have not coordinated their escape efforts with the 540 day cycle. Even though the number pushers knew of the 540 day shift cycle, they might not have been aware that the 540th day is the only day the island is accessible. This would imply that when Kelvin went looking for someone on the 540th day, he did so not because he knew it was the only accessible day, but because he was still looking for his replacements (which were supposed to arrive every 540 days).